Cloudy with a chance of cupcakes
2024 Predictions, Premonitions
’Tis the Season… December conjures up that liminal space between past and future as we reflect on the year that will soon be over and plan for the next one. We’re here, and we’re there, our minds occupy multiple spaces at once. It’s the season for major publications to put out entire editions, crammed with commentary and predictions for the year ahead. At one level, this is silly, viewing the world in calendar years distorts perception, and publishing anything these days has the possibility of massive event risk.
The only thing that is certain is that nothing is certain. Mark Twain
There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen. Lenin
Predictions are difficult, especially about the future. Yogi Berra
So yes, the whole exercise is a tad silly. However, like yuletide, seasonal rituals serve a purpose. It’s good for bloggers to escape the short-termism of daily or weekly notes, step back, try to see the big picture, and work out what their assumptions imply for the future. Often times, the year-ahead exercise allows one to publish niggling ideas that never quite find their way into weekly notes.
The Greek mathematician Pythagoras supposedly predicted that the world would end in 2024 — its safe to assume that Pythagoras will be proved wrong on this count.
What can be said with complete certainty is that 2024 will be a leap year; that the Paris Summer Olympics will see many records broken; and that my neighbour John will bet big on the New Year Toto 4D jackpot with the numbers 2-0-2-4 (you get ‘lucky’ 8 when you add up the numbers). No argument with the addition — my predictions for the next year are a bit more guarded, though — cloudy, with a chance of cupcakes. Let’s start with the sugar free AI generated cupcakes — savour them first and get ready for the parade.
Crystal ball on the table, show me the future….
Politics: Elections everywhere — the start of a political supercycle — an year in which for the first time in history more than half the people on the planet will be living in countries that hold national elections. A banner year for democracy — or maybe not. Perhaps a major political candidate will run a campaign entirely on TikTok. Perhaps Haley’s comet makes a surprise appearance.
Voters across the world will keep moving in a right-wing direction. This trend will carry momentum for some time to come — meaning immigration will remain unpopular in most countries. The ‘racist’ impulse will keep going mainstream — the centre has shifted although the media still calls these parties ‘far right’.
This also implies fertility declines will become a crisis in some countries in a matter of decades.
Geopolitics: Known Unknowns — more conflict and disorder in an increasingly fragmented world. The messy transition from Pax Americana to a multipolar or G Zero world continues — the axis of illwill/resistance will grow stronger; middle powers become more assertive. Kissinger is dead but his version of realpolitik gets amped up. No reform1 of the UN, WTO, WHO, IMF — more seat-of-the-pants flying — exciting times ahead.
It’s also clear that we’re heading towards a technopolar world — where Big Tech will have a bigger say (vs. nation states) in world affairs.
Tech will continue to get bigger — tech leaders will need to become grand strategists — aligning ever increasing aspirations with limited capabilities. Alignments across time, space & scale.
John Gaddis
Technology: ChatGPT will turn 2. GPT 5 will have to wait.
John von Neumann, a contemporary of Oppenheimer, famously said of him
Sometimes someone confesses a sin in order to take credit for it.
It's a pretty biting quip that points to the complex moral landscape that Oppenheimer found himself in during his work on the atomic bomb.
I am reminded of this as the EA and e/acc (or loosely, doomers and boomers) debate becomes louder and nastier. Find me in the middle.
On Day 2 of AI, I’m getting ready for AI assistants who can give sassy advice, crack jokes upon request and dish out witty comebacks. We’ll get ever closer to coding completely in conversational English — at that time I’ll join a billion other wannabe coders to satisfy this itch. In several more years we’ll see a billion bi-pedal robots; more adoption of “level 3” autonomous vehicles; at least a few cities with eVTOL ‘air taxis’. But I (still) want to ride my bicycle.
Medicine: Computational biology will bring Sherlock Holmes-level detective work to medicine, unlocking new preventive treatments and cures faster than you can say ‘Elementary, my dear Watson.’
Work: AI will significantly change the way work is done, organized and communicated. We’ll soon have AI’s as team members (vs bits of software) — incentives, culture, collaboration will be reimagined — and org designs will become more flexible and iterative.
Culture: A new fashion trend will emerge where everyone wears fanny packs and Crocs. 💼🩴 Also, how about a new social media platform that lets users post exclusively in emojis. 💁️.
Stoicism will flourish as ‘wokeness’ will take a back seat — we’re wired for faith; as we kill the old gods, we create new ones to replace them. Stoicism is the anti-thesis of today’s material culture — it nudges people to want less, not more; it promotes endurance, not indulgence; it advocates self control, not selfishness. Turn off Netflix, turn on the cold water shower. Ozempic for the burdened soul? Just maybe a new ‘anti-fashion’ trend will take hold, with people valuing sustainability and minimalism over fast fashion and consumerism. Green stoicism.
Energy: Renewable energy sources will continue to grow in popularity and availability, leading to significant shifts in the global energy landscape. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reckons the world will add as much renewable power in the coming five years as it did in the past 20.
All that means batteries, and lots of them — both to propel cars and to store energy from intermittent renewable power stations. A patch of Pacific Ocean seabed called the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) is dotted with trillions of potato-sized lumps of nickel, cobalt, manganese and copper, all of which are of interest to battery-makers — expect action (and controversy) as deep sea mining begins.
New maps — ‘green energy’ superpowers are forcing the energy resources map to be redrawn with unexpected winners and losers. Oil prices will remain rangebound.
Sustainability: We'll keep hearing talk of ‘Avengers-level’ action against climate change. With renewable energy, green infrastructure, and carbon capture tech, we'll save the planet with some serious superhero-style flair. 🌎
When all is said and done, though, more will be said than done. COP copouts.
Expect solar geo-engineering (dim the sun) and nuclear to grab more headlines — Uranium prices will continue to rise and Lithium prices fall.
Sports: E-sports look set to be the new cool kid on the block, with VR helmets and motion-sensing controllers making couch potatoes look like pro athletes.
Cricket becomes more international — more countries will play the T20 version of the game. The world’s second-most-popular sport and biggest sports market are about to meet soon.2
Money: parking problems — in an uncertain world, the rich want certainty (and discretion) — the queue to open family offices in sunny Singapore gets longer.
Crypto will make (yet) another comeback — NFT’s won’t be far behind.
Wishful Thin(-kin)g(s) — I don’t rule them out, neither should you.
1. With impending medical breakthroughs, more tech bros decide on cryogenic burials, expecting to be defrosted when a cure for the disease that caused their demise is discovered. Cryo funeral homes (not to be confused with crypto) have a campaign slogan ready ‘It’s Really Nice To Be On Ice’.
2. A ‘Coal IQ’3 breakthrough takes the edge off the global warming scare. This lowers the political pressure on developing markets (& big coal exporters) to make a rapid transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
3. India will compete seriously to win a portion of the manufacturing base that started looking for a new home after becoming increasingly uneasy with the uncertainty surrounding US–China relations. Yet for all the potential, India has an enormous handicap: its suspicion of imports, which is only getting worse as the rest of the world turns away from free trade. China + 1 has benefited Vietnam and Mexico handsomely. It’s hard to run a one-legged sprint and win.
As I look back at 2023, I’m grateful that I still have so much to explore and learn; and that we live in an exciting, crazy, fascinating world.
Get ready for 2024 and enjoy the year end celebrations.4 Whatever, whenever and however you celebrate, I wish you joy, health, and prosperity.
In 1968, supporters of a one world government met in Switzerland to write a World Constitution, backed by luminaries like Bertrand Russell, Linus Pauling, and Martin Luther King. The result was The Earth Constitution, which detailed both how a final world government would work, and how the would-be-world-governors would conduct themselves while waiting — there’s still a World Parliament that holds conferences and elects officers, waiting for the day when the rest of us agree to join them.
Cricket buffs may not know what pub quizzers know — the first ever cricket international was played between the US and Canada in Manhattan in 1844 (Canada won).
The World Coal Association has rebranded itself as “FutureCoal: The Global Alliance for Sustainable Coal,” CEO Michelle Manook said at a press conference in Delhi. “For too long our global coal value chain has allowed anti-coal sentiment to dominate and fragment us,” Manook said in a statement. That’s “resulted in a lowering of the global coal IQ,” which the group defines as an understanding of coal’s contribution to society. With remedial lessons on Coal IQ — for humanity — we maybe able to keep burnin’ ‘appily.
If you’ve gotten this far, here’s an appreciation gift for spending 5 min reading this at work — an auto e mail message you can use: I am not on vacation yet, I am in the office. Today is the day of the week our company has dedicated to in-person meetings so we can chase the high of serendipitous innovation that happens only when you’re close enough to smell your colleagues. I will respond to your message if I survive this meeting in which Bob is scrawling what looks like illegible hieroglyphs on a whiteboard. One person is quietly doing all the work for all of us, lamenting they could do this faster at home (that’s me). Thank you in advance for your patience. Happy New Year!
I really love how you put this together Rajesh, it almost feels like, "Rainy with high chance of a Rainbow". Have an awesome 2024 ahead!
Hilarious!